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With Selection Sunday less than a month away, excitement is building for the 2025 NCAA Tournament. One of the most compelling debates each year is which four teams will earn a 1-seed, thus having the “easiest” path to the Final Four. Among the top schools, six teams have separated themselves from the rest of the pack. It’s difficult to imagine another team outside of the top six doing enough over the next three-plus weeks to move into the conversation. Let’s look at those six teams and estimate their chance of securing that top seed.
Auburn
The Tigers have been rolling atop the rankings all year long. They have arguably the nation’s top player in Johni Broome (18.1 PPG, 10.9 RPG, 3.4 APG, 2.7 BPG). They have six players averaging double-figures, including Denver Jones and Miles Kelly who are both well above 40-percent from beyond the arc. Auburn’s only two losses came against the teams currently ranked 2 and 3 (Florida and Duke). It’s an experienced group. Freshman Tahaad Pettiford is surrounded by a group of strong upperclassmen. Bruce Pearl’s team flamed out in the Round of 64 last season, but they appear ready to make a run this year. It would take a monumental meltdown to take them off the 1-line.
Duke
Auburn’s Johni Broome is the odds-on favorite for the Naismith Award, but the best player in college basketball is Duke’s Cooper Flagg. The freshman is just a few months away from being the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft. He does it all for the Blue Devils, but it’s not just a one-man show. Freshman Kon Knueppel and junior Tyrese Proctor can spread the floor and knock down timely shots.
HC Jon Scheyer brings a major x-factor off the bench in five-star microwave scorer Isaiah Evans. Duke is 22-1 when Evans plays. The ACC’s top dog also has the benefit of playing weaker competition than their SEC counterparts. Nobody is going to give the Blue Devils much trouble to end the year, ensuring Duke secures a top seed in March’s tournament.
Alabama
The Crimson Tide were expected to excel this year after returning the senior trio of Mark Sears, Grant Nelson, and Latrell Wrightsell Jr. Offensively, there aren’t many teams more potent than Alabama. They’re leading the country in PPG for the second consecutive year (90.3). And, that’s with Sears struggling majorly as a scorer. His numbers across the board are down after an All-American season last year.
Florida
Florida has all of the ingredients of a title contender. It boasts a veteran backcourt led by All-American candidate Walter Clayton Jr. The Gators have depth and defensive versatility. The health of forward Alex Condon will be something to monitor down the stretch. He injured his ankle against Mississippi State, and his energy and defensive impact is vital to Florida’s frontcourt.
The Gators have toppled the No. 1 team twice already this season. In January, they smoked Tennessee 73-43 when the Vols were No. 1 in the rankings. On Feb. 8, Florida went to Auburn and knocked off No. 1. They’ve shown that they won’t back down from any matchup, but it will likely take a strong run in the SEC Tournament to lock in a No. 1 seed.
Tennessee
Winning in March often comes down to which team can generate more stops. Rick Barnes’ Volunteers are built for that exact purpose. Tennessee is one of the most sound defensive teams in the country. They rank 1st in defense according to KenPom’s rankings. Zakai Ziegler is a ball hawk who controls the floor on the offensive end. Ohio State transfer Felix Okpara is making a name for himself as a versatile defender. He’s one of the nation’s top paint protectors and also can switch onto guards on the perimeter.
It’s on the offensive end where they can get stymied. North Florida transfer Chaz Lanier is Tennessee’s go-to scorer and is shooting over 40-percent from three this year. The Vols’ offense stalled in their five losses, including two defeats to Kentucky. A split against Florida, and losing their only game to Auburn has them on the outside of 1-seed conversations. A win over Alabama and a deep run in the SEC tournament could flip things around.
Houston
Houston shares a similar profile to Tennessee. The Cougars are elite defensively, ranking 3rd in Kenpom’s rankings. However, they also rank 7th in offense. The Big 12 isn’t quite as deep as the SEC, but Houston’s resume is rather impressive. They have four losses on the season. Three of those defeats came in overtime, and the last was a five-point game to Auburn in the second game of the season.
