NCAA First Four: Wednesday’s Matchups & Predictions

Wednesday brings us our last two First Four matchups in the NCAA Tournament.

The MAAC and Patriot League champions face off with a chance to play Duke up for grabs. In the Midwest, tournament regular Xavier takes on Texas coming off its first year in the SEC. It’s an exciting pair of games which will lead us to Thursday’s jam-packed slate.

Let’s dive into both matchups and predict a winner for each.

#16 Mount St. Mary’s (22-12) vs. #16 American University (22-12)

The first-time winners of the MAAC Mount St. Mary’s take on the Patriot League champion American University. The Mountaineers are led by rookie head coach Donny Lind, and won on three consecutive nights to secure the MAAC tournament title. In the final, they held Iona to just 49 points on 31-percent shooting.

American University is led by a second-year head coach in Duane Simpkins, and are one of the better defensive teams in the country. In the Patriot League final, the Eagles handled Navy by a score of 74-52. Lead guard Matt Rogers (17.0 PPG) is a highly efficient scorer who can attack from multiple levels. On the year, American allowed 67.3 PPG — ranked 50th nationally.

An unfortunate series of injuries could end up costing the Mountaineers this matchup. Forward Terrell Ard Jr. suffered a torn Achilles two weeks ago which ended his season. Mount St. Mary’s will also be without sharpshooter Carmelo Pacheco (46.4 3PT% on 5.5 attempts) who is out with a finger injury. The Eagles strike on an undermanned Mountaineers squad.

#11 Xavier (21-11) vs. #11 Texas (19-15)

Wednesday’s main event features a Big East vs. SEC showdown.

Xavier finds itself in the First Four after an early exit in the Big East tournament. The Musketeers were riding a seven-game winning streak before running into Marquette in the quarterfinals. Ryan Conwell’s 38 points weren’t enough for them to take down the Golden Eagles.

Texas began the season 11-2 before embarking on a daunting SEC schedule. They finished 6-12 in the regular season and won two games in the SEC Tournament before losing to Tennessee in the quarterfinals.

Both teams are experienced with only one underclassman in their rotation. Xavier leans on the shooting of Conwell and grittiness of two-time All Big-East selection Zach Freemantle. Texas has a senior-laden roster, but star freshman Tre Johnson is the focal point of the team. A likely NBA Lottery pick, Johnson led the conference in scoring and can get going in a hurry.

With two strong rosters coming out of two formidable conferences, we’ll lean on coaching for this pick. Rodney Terry has done a great job of getting Texas to three-straight NCAA Tournaments, but Xavier’s Sean Miller is one of the very best. Miller will have his team ready to play and will advance to take on #6 Illinois.