NCAA First Four: Tuesday’s Matchups & Predictions

The NCAA Tournament is finally here. With the Round of 64 set to begin Thursday morning, four teams will play on Tuesday/Wednesday for a chance to break into the final group. Tuesday brings us a double-header with an intriguing late-night matchup. Let’s break down the two games, and give some insight into which team has the edge heading into the battles.

#16 Saint Francis (16-17) vs. #16 Alabama State (19-15)

Kicking off the NCAA Tournament is a matchup of conference champions looking to break into the Round of 64. After starting the season 10-17, Saint Francis won its last six games including three in the NEC Tournament. In the title game, the Red Flash took down the No. 1 seed in the NEC, the Central Connecticut Blue Devils, with a clutch basket in the closing seconds. Alabama State shared a similar path. The Hornets began the season 9-14, but won 10 of 11 down the stretch including three games on three consecutive nights to take the SWAC Tournament title.

Saint Francis hasn’t been a part of the NCAA Tournament since 1991 — 93-80 loss to Arizona. Alabama State has been a 16-seed four times, but has lost in the play-in in each of their last two appearances.

Both teams prefer to share on the offensive end. Saint Francis’ leading scorer, G Riley Parker, is averaging 13.4 PPG but only takes 10.2 shots per game. They have five players that average at least seven shot attempts per game. The Hornets rely on a three-headed attack which includes TJ Madlock (12.6 PPG, 7.2 RPG) — the son of Alabama State’s coach, Tony Madlock.

This game will likely come down to the wire, but look for Saint Francis to pull away in crunch time. This is a group that’s playing with immense confidence coming off their NEC Tournament showing. Head coach Rob Krimmel has been with the program since 2012, and will get a chance to lead his team to their first win in the NCAA Tournament in school history.

#11 North Carolina (22-13) vs. #11 San Diego State (21-9)

The marquee matchup of Tuesday’s slate includes two teams that are no stranger to March.

North Carolina was in the title game in ’22 and San Diego State made it to the final in ’23. Now, they’ll battle one another for a chance to go up against Ole Miss in Round of 64.

The Tar Heels narrowly made it into the field, to the surprise of many college basketball fans. Despite a solid 22-13 overall record, Hubert Davis’ team routinely fell short against the better teams in the country. According to NET rankings, North Carolina finished 1-12 on the year against Quad 1 teams. There’s a sense that the Tar Heels made the cut due to their name value and pedigree, rather than their results.

Still, this is a team that opponents cannot take lightly. RJ Davis is one of the best guards in the country, and capable of taking over games. They’re not as big up front as they’ve been in recent years, but UNC’s backcourt has the talent to make a run.

It might not matter against an SDSU team that is likely under-seeded as a play-in team. Head coach Brian Dutcher is one of the savviest defensive minds in the country. The Aztecs finished 14th in opponents scoring, and boast athletic, rangy defenders across multiple positions.

North Carolina’s response following their most recent game will be interesting to chart. Taking on their bitter rivals, Duke, in the ACC Tournament, the Tar Heels battled back after being down double digits only for a mental mistake — senior forward Jae’lyn Withers committed a lane violation on a game-tying free throw attempt — to cost them the game. Can the Tar Heels rally after the heartbreaking defeat?

In the MWC Tournament, the Aztecs failed to reach the final for the first time since 2017. However, things could change dramatically for the SDSU entering the NCAAs. MWC Defensive Player of the Year Magoon Gwath (2.6 BPG) has been out since Feb. 22. He’s set to return to the floor Tuesday, and will provide a big boost in the paint for Dutcher’s squad.

With Gwath back, the Aztec defense will prove to be too much for the Tar Heels. San Diego State will be able to slow the game down, and will eventually wear on the smaller Tar Heels. The selection committee may have shocked everybody by including North Carolina in the field, but their time in the NCAA Tournament will be short.