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Vanderbilt Commodores (20-9)
The SEC has been the premier conference in college basketball this season. Because of that, a team like Vanderbilt has an increased chance of making the NCAA Tournament. The Commodores are 8-8 in SEC play and are in the middle of the standings. The team appeared to be falling off the bubble after a 1-5 stretch last month, but Vandy has spun off three wins in a row — all coming against ranked opponents in Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Missouri, respectively. With additional wins over Tennessee and Kentucky on its résumé, Vandy seems like a good bet to secure one of the final at-large bids barring big losses in its next three games.
Georgia Bulldogs (18-11)
While Vanderbilt feels like a near certainty to reach the tournament, Georgia is in a far more uncertain position. The Bulldogs have struggled in conference play as they enter the final week of the regular season with a 6-10 mark. They recently ended a 1-5 skid — all five losses came against ranked teams — with an impressive victory over #3 Florida and a convincing road-win over Texas. Also possessing a strong non-conference win over St. John’s, Georgia will likely punch its ticket to the Big Dance with wins over South Carolina and Vanderbilt to end the regular season.
West Virginia Mountaineers (17-12)
The Big 12 has three very good teams (Iowa State, Texas Tech, Houston), three others that have all but secured spots in the field (Arizona, BYU, Kansas) and two teams firmly on the bubble. Baylor also has some work to do, but it is in a better spot than West Virginia. So, let’s take a look at the Mountaineers. With an 8-10 record, WVU has underwhelmed in conference play. However, it owns victories over Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas and Iowa State. If the Mountaineers close the season with wins over Utah and UCF, that quartet of wins will likely be enough to get them in the tournament. WVU is 2-4 over its last six and its last two defeats have been blowouts. The road tilt with Utah is not an easy one — and a loss to the Utes could end WVU’s hopes.
North Carolina Tar Heels (19-11)
Most years, North Carolina would feel comfortable with its chances to make the NCAA Tournament with a 19-11 record (with two to play). In 2025, UNC is likely to miss the tournament unless it makes a deep run in the ACC Tournament. The ACC has been historically bad this season. Only three teams — Duke, Louisville, Clemson — are locks to make the field. UNC doesn’t have a marquee win this season and it has been run off the court by the three teams at the top of the conference. The Tar Heels fell by 13 at Louisville, 17 at Duke, and 20 at Clemson. A win over the Blue Devils in the regular season finale would help their case tremendously.
New Mexico Lobos (23-6)
The leaders of the Mountain West should earn an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament even if they fail to win the conference tournament. With that being said, we’ve seen mid-major schools unjustly left out of the field before. The Lobos hold an impressive win over UCLA and are 4-0 against the two teams chasing them in the Mountain West — both Utah State and Colorado State have 20+ wins. Additionally, New Mexico has 11 wins against the BPI top 100. Outside of St. Mary’s, Memphis and possibly Gonzaga, the Lobos have the best case of any mid-major.
