Jayden Daniels is gearing up to play in the NFC title game this weekend, and will soon receive the Offensive Rookie of the Year award for his play during the regular season. It begs the question: Is Daniels having the greatest rookie campaign from a quarterback in NFL history?
There’s certainly a case to be made. During the regular season, Daniels passed for 3,568 yards and 25 TDs and rushed for 891 yards and 6 TDs. He finished fourth in ESPN’s QBR behind the likely top-three finishers in MVP voting — Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow. He’s led Washington to two postseason wins and is first among all playoff QBs in yards (567), touchdowns (4), and QBR (86.8).
We’ve seen impressive statistical seasons from first-year passers before. We’ve seen rookie quarterbacks lead their team to the postseason. We’ve seen them in conference title games. But, Daniels’ combination of individual and team success has been unprecedented.
Great rookie QB seasons lean toward recent history. The idea behind starting a QB fresh out of the college ranks is a more recent development. NFL historians might point to Dan Marino as having one of the more memorable rookie campaigns before the turn of the century. He became the full-time starter in Week 6 and went on to finish third in MVP voting that year. The Dolphins went 7-2 with Marino as a starter as he threw for 20 TDs and 6 INTs. Miami lost its first playoff game at home to Dave Kreig and the Seattle Seahawks.
Marino found immediate success, but his statistical profile falls by the wayside compared to rookies from the last decade-plus. Cam Newton hit the ground running a year after leading Auburn to a national title. Newton set the rookie record (since broken) with 4,051 passing yards and had the record for the most rushing TDs (14) by a QB until it was broken last year by Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts. Newton won Offensive Rookie of the Year, but the Panthers didn’t find much success going 6-10 on the season.
Justin Herbert’s rookie season shared similarities to Newton’s. In 2002, Herbert took over as the Chargers starting quarterback following an injury to Tyrod Taylor. The former Oregon passer threw for 4,336 yards and a record-breaking 31 touchdown passes. He was named Offensive Rookie of the Year, but the Chargers finished 6-9 with Herbert as a starter.
The list shrinks when you consider rookie QBs who enjoyed both individual and team success. Dak Prescott was in the MVP conversation as a first-year player, throwing for 3,667 yards, 23 TDs, and only 4 INTs. He was overshadowed by his backfield mate, Ezekiel Elliott, who led the league in rushing and was named First-team All-Pro. The Cowboys entered the playoffs as the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC but lost their first postseason matchup to the Green Bay Packers.
Just last season, C.J. Stroud was a Pro Bowler and earned MVP votes. He led the Texans to the postseason and even won a playoff game. Daniels has him beat in total yards, touchdowns, completion percentage, and QBR, and has already made it a round further than Stroud did last year.
Ben Roethlisberger and Brock Purdy are two of the five rookies to start a conference championship game. They both had strong campaigns but played with No. 1 ranked defenses both in points and yards. The 2004 Pittsburgh Steelers allowed 15.7 PPG and the 2022 San Francisco 49ers allowed 16.3 PPG. Daniels’ defense allowed 23.0 PPG — ranking 18th in the league. Russell Wilson — who accounted for 3,607 total yards and 30 TDs as a rookie — fell one game short of the NFC title game in 2012 and also benefitted from a historic defense.
Washington has seen an elite rookie season from a QB before. Robert Griffin III won the last seven games in his first year to clinch a playoff spot. He passed for 3,200 yards, 20 TDs, 5 INTs, and added on 815 rushing yards and 7 rushing TDs. Washington finished 4th in points scored that year and 22nd in points allowed. They flamed out in the Wild Card round, losing 24-14 to the Seahawks. Griffin had two passing touchdowns in the first quarter but turned the ball over twice. Griffin tore his ACL in the fourth quarter and he was never quite the same.
Griffin was named Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2012, despite some arguing that Indianapolis’ Andrew Luck deserved that distinction. Luck’s rookie campaign is regarded as arguably the best of all time. He took a Colts team that won just two games the year prior and led them to 11 wins and a playoff berth. His 4,374 passing yards remains a record. He led the NFL with seven game-winning drives. The Colts ultimately fell in the Wild Card round to the eventual Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens.
That leads us to Daniels and the season he’s having. He’s put up the numbers, passed the eye test, and led his team to a position they haven’t been in since 1991. No rookie quarterback has ever started a Super Bowl, let alone won one. Daniels is one game away from making history and two games away from solidifying one of the greatest rookie seasons in all of sports.
