Can the Commanders Shock the Lions in NFC Playoff Battle?

The Washington Commanders are walking into Ford Field as sizable underdogs. They take on the No. 1 seed Detroit Lions who some view as the favorite to win the Super Bowl. The Lions enter the game with the league’s No. 1 scoring offense, a massive offensive line, talent across all skill positions, and a defense that has played well despite key injuries. Despite facing massive odds, the Commanders still have a chance to pull off the upset.

A three-week losing streak in November had Washington at 7-5 and facing the possibility of missing the postseason entirely. Since then, the Commanders have strung together six wins in a row, including the Wild Card victory over the Buccaneers. They haven’t lost a game by more than one possession since Week 1. At the very least, even when the Commanders don’t play their best game, they’ve been able to keep it close for the most part.

That’s primarily due to having one of the most efficient offenses in the league. Washington ranked 5th in points per game (28.5) during the regular season and 4th in points per drive (2.73). 50-percent of their drives ended up in points — 2nd best mark in the league behind only the Lions.

They were also elite situationally. The Commanders finished 6th in the NFL on third downs and in the red zone. In most games, the Lions will have the advantage over their opponent due to their willingness and ability to convert on fourth downs. Not against Washington. No team in the league was better than the Commanders on fourth down, who converted on 20-of-23 attempts (87-percent) during the regular season and went 3-for-5 in their Wild Card win over the Buccaneers.

The dual threat ability of Jayden Daniels allows the Commanders to be so efficient on crucial downs. Daniels ranked 11th in the league in first downs converted by rushing (55). Washington RB Brian Robinson ranked 25th in the same category with 47 first downs on the ground.

This offense should be able to put up points against Detroit’s defense, but getting stops against a high-powered Lions attack is an obvious concern. Even the best defenses in the league have struggled to slow down the Lions, and the Commanders’ unit is nowhere near elite.

That being said, there’s plenty of talent for Washington on defense. Their offseason signings have paid dividends. Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu were named to the All-Pro Second-team as linebackers. Former top pick Dante Fowler led the team with 10.5 sacks. Two-time Pro Bowler Jonathan Allen returned from injury three weeks ago and has seen his snap count increase each game. Former New Orleans Saint CB Marshon Lattimore is dealing with a hamstring injury, but played most of the Wild Card game and could be key in slowing down Detroit’s top offensive weapons.

It’s likely going to take a couple of turnovers for Washington to stand a chance. Lions QB Jared Goff tossed two picks in Detroit’s final regular season game against the Vikings. He’s been better against the blitz this year, but has struggled against pressure like most QBs with limited mobility do.

With a dynamic QB under center running one of the league’s hottest offenses, a Commanders team riding a six-game winning streak could shock the NFL world with an upset over the mighty Lions.