Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints
Alvin Kamara can be had at a discount in fantasy drafts this year due to his three-game suspension. He’s being drafted at RB20 — right inbetween Philly’s Miles Sanders and Minnesota’s Alexander Mattison — but can he provide top-10 value for fantasy managers who are patient? We aren’t so sure. Even when he does return, Kamara will enter a rather crowded room of skill players. Aside from last year’s touchdown leader Jamaal Williams and rookie Kendre Miller, Kamara will also be contending for targets with perhaps the league’s deepest group of pass catchers — Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Rashid Shaheed, Tre’Quan Smith, Juwan Johnson, Foster Moreau, Jimmy Graham, and, even, Taysom Hill.
Dalvin Cook, RB, Jets
Dalvin Cook has been one of the most consistent running backs in the league. Since 2019, Cook has compiled at least 1,300 scrimmage yards every year and has reached the Pro Bowl four-straight times. But, we did see some wear and tear towards the end of last season. In six of the final eight games, Cook failed to score over 11 fantasy points (PPR). His decline at the end of the year may have led to Minnesota’s decision to not retain him. Cook landed with the Jets in the offseason, citing Aaron Rodgers’ presence as a deciding factor. He’s an exceptional luxury piece for a team hoping to make a run, but will likely operate in a committee backfield for an offense that will almost certainly revolve around Rodgers’ arm.
Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers
Mike Evans has been one of the steadiest fantasy contributors since entering the league. Utilizing his entire 6-foot-5 frame, Evans boxes out smaller defenders and routinely makes spectacular catches. But, a QB change in Tampa Bay could hinder this passing attack greatly. Of course, going from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield is always going to be an issue. In his last full season with the Browns, Mayfield’s top WR went for only 597 yards. And, Mayfield has a history of being unable to get the ball to an elite wideout (just ask Odell Beckham Jr. about his tenure in Cleveland). Evans’ streak of nine-straight 1,000-yard seasons could be in peril.
DK Metcalf, WR, Seahawks
Some players are better on the field than they are as fantasy producers. D.K. Metcalf fits into that mold. The juggernaut wideout can completely warp defenses with his speed and catch radius, but he hasn’t exactly dominated fantasy circles. Metcalf finished last year as WR16 in PPR formats behind Brandon Aiyuk and teammate Tyler Lockett. When you consider Metcalf is a third-round pick in most leagues while Lockett can be had 3-to-4 rounds later, it doesn’t bode well for the more physically imposing Seahawks WR. We’re also much more interested in the upside of wide receivers being drafted around Metcalf, including DeVonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts
We’re not even completely sure if Johnathan Taylor will be playing football in ’23. The Colts RB is just a year removed from leading all running backs in fantasy points (both PPR and standard leagues). Now, the relationship between Taylor and the organization appears to be nearing an end. The team announced that he will be placed on the PUP list after they failed to determine an adequate trade partner. He’ll miss the first four games, and it doesn’t seem like at that point he’ll be any more eager to join the team. Taylor is going elsewhere, that much is certain. The timeline for a potential deal happening is anybody’s guess. Plus, it’s going to take some time for him to assimilate to his new team once he joins. He’s a clear stayaway as the season is set to start.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Jets
Completing our Jets trifecta, we can’t advise selecting the oldest active NFL player entering 2023. The longtime Packer QB cut ties with his former team to join the New York Jets (sound familiar?). Rodgers reunites with former offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett in a situation that doesn’t look all that different from the one he was enduring in Green Bay. The Jets have one great receiver in Garrett Wilson, and not a whole lot else in terms of pass-catching options. New York will rely on its stingy defense to win games, limiting the amount of potential offensive shootouts they’ll be involved in. Rodgers will be better than he was in ’22, but we’re not sure we see him as a top QB for fantasy purposes (he’s being drafted as QB12 on average). A better use of your draft resources would be rolling the dice on somebody like Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones who will both generate a ton of points as scramblers.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Titans
DeAndre Hopkins is no stranger to dire QB situations. In fact, the most impressive season of Hopkins’ career was in 2015 when Houston’s starting QB duties were split between Brian Hoyer (9 starts), Ryan Mallett (4), T.J. Yates (2), and Brandon Weeden (1). The gifted wideout signed with the Titans this offseason, and Ryan Tannehill is considerably better than any of those Houston options. However, Tannehill’s hold on the starting job is hardly ironclad as the team is in flux. Malik Willis or Will Levis could be called upon at any moment. Additionally, the Titans will always be a running team for as long as Derrick Henry is on the roster. Hopkins saw 150 or more targets each year from ’15-’20. No Tennessee wideout has seen more than 112 targets in a season during the Vrabel era.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens
Lamar Jackson in 2019 was basically a fantasy football cheat code. He was a QB (led the league in passing touchdowns) and RB (finished sixth in rushing yards) rolled into one superstar player. Since then, Jackson has consistently been among the first couple of quarterbacks taken off the board in most leagues, but he’s failed to produce at quite the same level. In ’20, Jackson finished 10th in scoring among QB’s — narrowly ahead of Kirk Cousins and Matt Ryan. The last two years, Jackson has been limited by injuries and struggled mightily as a passer while seeing declining numbers as a runner. If he’s healthy and the new-look offense clicks, Jackson could be a league winner. That being said, he’s been banged up each of the two years and there’s no guarantee he meshes with Todd Monken’s offense immediately.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders
Arguably the training camp holdout with the most fantasy implications at stake was that of Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs. The former Alabama runner had always been regarded as talented, but he was downright sensational in his first year within Josh McDaniels’ offense. Remember, some pundits were worried about Jacobs’ future on the team 12 months ago when he played a handful of snaps in preseason. By the end of the year, no other Vegas running back saw more than 17 carries as Jacobs finished second in the NFL with 340 totes (and a league-leading 1,653 rush yards). While Jacobs ended his holdout by signing a one-year deal, we don’t imagine the Raiders using Jacobs quite as often as they did in ’22. With even a slightly reduced workload, Jacobs will fall out of the elite tier of backs.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams
Cooper Kupp is an excellent player who plays for a terrible football team. The Rams have been gutted since winning the Super Bowl two years ago. Matthew Stafford remains the QB, but he’s coming off an awful, injury-riddled season. The offensive line is suspect, and there are no legitimate receiving threat outside of Kupp to draw attention away from defenses. Likely on their way to finishing with one of the worst records in the league, the Rams will be careful with their usage of the 30-year-old Kupp who still has three years left on his current deal.
