Currently sitting at 4-5, the USC Trojans and Lincoln Riley are looking at another lost season.
Inconsistency on both sides of the ball has been noticeable. Additionally, there’s an inability to close appropriately in the second halves of games. Whereas the opponent seemingly makes halftime adjustments to better position their team, USC does not — or at least it hasn’t been noticeable.
Let’s throw out some numbers to categorize the USC football program. Under Riley’s leadership, the program has gone 23-13. He’s already lost more games at USC than during his entire tenure at Oklahoma (55-10). Over USC’s last 16 games, the Trojans have lost 10 of them. When Riley was hired three years ago, rival Oregon hired Dan Lanning during the same offseason. In the same time frame, Lanning has gone 31-5.
The most damning number is $90 million. This is the amount of money owed to Riley in a buyout scenario if USC were to fire him today. In other words… he’s likely not going anywhere anytime soon.
The question persists: Can he turn this thing around?
Despite having the Heisman Trophy winner last year in Caleb Williams, Riley’s team went only 8-5. Despite some coaching changes made to the staff, the personnel on the team has been a major issue. This is particularly the case up front on both sides of the ball. To be frank, this program under Riley’s direction has been soft. At the first sign of things not going their way, the team tends to fold. Physically, USC isn’t consistent enough at establishing a credible ground game — nor cultivating even an average pass rush.
These negative traits relate considerably to recruiting. Riley’s willingness to load up on receivers and neglect both lines has been noteworthy. Even with subpar player development, Riley is recruiting in a strange manner relative to the inherent advantages USC offers.
As an example, USC’s recruiting class ranked No. 20 in 2024 nationally (per 247Sports). Of the 22 high school signees, only seven came from the state of California. The Trojans also didn’t sign one top 10 prospect from the state of California. In 2025, USC has only one commitment within the top 10 prospects in the Golden State, and three in the top 20. Of the 23 high school commitments for this current class, only four are from California.
Riley is strangely opting to focus recruiting efforts primarily in the Southeast region of the United States. While a ton of talent comes from this part of the country, you’re also going up against a host of very strong competitors. Not only that, but if you sign players from that region, they’re far more likely to transfer given the distance from home compared to more local prospects.
California remains one of the most talent-rich states in the U.S. If USC does consider itself to be the premier program out West, why would Riley neglect its home state to such a strong degree? It’s truly puzzling and doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.
There’s a world in which USC can turn the tide with an improved NIL program. At the same time, if USC struggled with a generational talent like Caleb Williams at quarterback, what makes anyone think they’ll suddenly turn things around?
