The Rockets successfully turned it around last year. After three straight years of suffering at least 55 losses, the ’23-’24 Rockets finished 41-41. A 3-6 finish kept them out of the play-in tournament, but a 10-game winning streak in March had many believing the Rockets had turned the corner. The young core was expected to take another leap heading into the ’24-’25.
And, they’re not off to a bad start. Houston is 8-4 through 12 games — their best start since ’19-’20, James Harden’s last full season in Houston. Some Rocket fans think their record should be even better after giving away a late lead to the Hornets, a failed 18-point comeback attempt versus the Spurs, and an overtime loss to the Warriors. Their only other defeat was to the No. 1 team in the Western Conference, the Oklahoma City Thunder. Houston currently sports the 6th best net rating in the NBA and held opponents to under 110 points in all eight of their wins.
There are still areas for improvement. The offense has been average, at best. After a hot start to the season, starting guard Jalen Green has cooled off considerably. He’s shooting 33.9 percent from the field and 28.6 percent from three over the last seven games. His assists are down and his turnovers are up from last year. It’s Year 4 for the former No. 3 overall pick. He’s good for a highlight every night, but the team needs him to be more efficient as a scorer and playmaker.
Speaking of efficiency, the Rockets starting lineup has been one of the least efficient groups in basketball. Green’s 51.9 true-shooting percentage is well below the league average (57.4 in ’24-’25), and isn’t even the worst among Houston’s starters. Alperen Sengun (53.0) leads the way with Dillon Brooks (52.4) not too far behind. Jabari Smith Jr. (49.9) and Fred VanVleet (47.6) are hoisting up bricks on a nightly basis.
The last two players are key for Houston moving forward. VanVleet was brought in last season on a massive free-agent deal. His steady playmaking and competitiveness played a massive part in Houston’s quick turnaround. VanVleet has remained excellent as a passer (5.7 APG, 1.1 TOPG), but is shooting career lows across the board. He’s never shot a high percentage from the field, but 28.2 percent from three from a career 37.3-percent three-point shooter is unacceptable. Smith Jr. has been just as bad and is a zero in the playmaking department.
Reducing either’s role seems like an easy fix, but comes with some caveats. VanVleet going to the bench means more ball-handling duties for Green who is mistake prone. Sending Smith Jr. to the bench could crush the confidence of a former No. 2 overall pick. Rockets head coach Ime Udoka has some difficult decisions to weigh. It must happen for Houston to get arguably their two most impactful two-way players on the floor.
Tari Eason and Amen Thompson have been the backbone of Houston’s defensive surge. Eason is a menace on that end of the floor. He’s averaging 1.8 SPG and 1.2 BPG in just 22.9 MPG (seventh on the team). Thompson might be the most athletic player in the league. The 22-year-old is an elite rebounder and defender for a player his size (6-foot-7) and is a capable passer averaging 2.5 APG over his career in limited minutes. Both of these guys need to see the floor more often.
Could that mean a trade is in the works for Houston? It makes sense given their bloated roster. We haven’t even mentioned Cam Whitmore who has spent time in the G-League this year, or 2024 third-overall pick Reed Sheppard. If a star is made available, the Rockets might have the most assets to get a deal done. They have two first-round picks in this upcoming draft (considered one of the most stacked drafts in years) and three first-rounders in 2027. They also have several young players that would pique the interest of a team looking to rebuild.
Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo is the ultimate prize among stars who could conceivably ask out. The Bucks have strung together a few wins recently, but remain near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings. How much future capital would the Rockets be willing to move for the 29-year-old superstar? That’s the question Houston GM Rafael Stone will have to battle with as we approach the trade deadline.
The Rockets are a bit ahead of schedule, but there’s always a risk of falling out of the playoff picture in a crowded Western Conference — especially with star-laden teams like the Timberwolves and Mavericks currently outside of the top 10 in the West. The Rockets can hold out hope that players like VanVleet and Smith Jr. will start shooting better, or that Green finally makes the leap into stardom. Or, they could choose to start making changes to stay in front of the curve. They’ll be one of the more interesting teams to watch as the NBA season rages on.
