Rockets or Lakers: Who Can Rally From 3-1?

Wednesday’s slate of NBA playoff basketball features two Western Conference series that are currently 3-1. The Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers find themselves in a hole, needing three straight wins to advance to the next round. Which team is in better position to make it happen? Let’s examine both series, and what each team needs to have happen to make a miraculous comeback:

Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors

The Rockets’ heartbreaking Game 4 loss was highlighted by the Warriors’ Jimmy Butler taking over in the fourth quarter. It especially stings as Houston was a potential destination for Butler prior to him getting shipped to Golden State. These two teams are plenty familiar with each other dating back to the battles between James Harden and Stephen Curry.

The Warriors always got the better of the Rockets in those postseason matchup, but can this youthful Houston group rally to vanquish the beast?

Why They Can: The Rockets have dominated the paint for most of the series. They outscored the Warriors by 20 in the paint in Game 1, 18 in Game 2, and 20 in Game 4. Steven Adams has been a big difference maker. He was a +16 in Game 4 in just 26 minutes.

The Warriors eventually began intentionally fouling Adams late to try and get him off the floor. That won’t be an employable strategy early in the game, and Houston could look to pad its lead in the first half.

Why They Can’t: Free throws have been a big issue for Houston all series. They missed 12 in Game 4 — a game decided by just 3 points. On the series, they’re shooting 63-percent from the line. While there will be ebbs and flows — Houston shot 80-percent in Game 2, their only win — this is who they are.

The Rockets ranked dead last in free throw shooting — 73.8-percent — as a team during the regular season. If any of these games are tight late, Houston will be at a massive disadvantage while the Warriors have the best free throw shooter in league history in Curry.

Odds: 10% ; 25% if they win Game 5, 50% if they win Game 6

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

The Lakers had a chance to win both games in Minnesota, but dropped a pair to the hosting Timberwolves. Now, LeBron James and Luka Doncic face a possible first-round elimination despite entering the series as favorites. The difference-maker has been late in games. Many thought the Lakers would have the advantage in those situations due to the experience and IQ of their top two stars.

Instead, the upstart Wolves have dominated crunch time — outscoring the Lakers 105-69 in the fourth quarter this series. Are the Lakers done, or is James ready to lead another 3-1 comeback?

Why They Can: Game 3 was knotted at 103 with 4:37 remaining, and the Lakers led 103-101 with a minute left in Game 4. Both games came down to a few plays down the stretch, leading one to believe the teams are more evenly matched than the series count says. Game 5 is set for LA, where the Lakers had the third-best home record in the league during the regular season.

Doncic has played well in the three games that he wasn’t dealing with a stomach bug, and James has been excellent on both ends. Historically, both of LA’s stars get better as the series wears on. James is No. 1 (33.5 PPG) and Doncic is No. 2 (33.4) all-time in elimination game scoring in NBA history.

Why They Can’t: Depth. The Lakers played the same five-man rotation for the entire second-half during Sunday’s loss. That’s not a sustainable practice — especially when one of those players is a 40-year-old in Year 22. The final three games of the series have just one day of break in-between.

If Lakers HC JJ Redick doesn’t trust anybody outside of his top-5, the Lakers will fade while the younger Wolves will feast. On the other side, Minnesota HC Chris Finch has eight players he trusts. Edwards has looked plenty rested during these fourth quarter takeovers.

Odds: 15% ; 30% if they win Game 5, 60% if they win Game 6