NBA Playoff Picture: Who’s Clinched & Who’s on the Bubble?

There are just two weeks left in the NBA’s regular season, and the race for the playoffs is heating up.

We already have our top seeds in both conferences. The Oklahoma City Thunder (62-12) have been lapping the rest of the West for weeks, while the Cleveland Cavaliers (60-15) need just a couple of more wins down the stretch to secure home court advantage throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs. The other teams in the hunt are fighting for positioning and trying to avoid having to compete in the play-in tournament.

The current format of the play-in tournament was adopted in 2021. Teams that finish between 7th, 8th, 9th, and 10th in each conference are pitted in a round-robin tournament to determine the final teams in the NBA Playoffs. Given the volatility of the play-in, an increased importance on securing a top-6 conference standing has materialized.

Some sorting out still needs to occur, but we have a general idea of where teams may land in the final standings.

The Eastern Conference is a bit simpler. The top-6 teams are likely already decided. The Cavaliers and defending champion Celtics (55-19) lead the way and will finish as the top two seeds. The New York Knicks (47-27) have separated themselves as the No. 3, with the surging Indiana Pacers (43-31) and upstart Detroit Pistons (42-33) looking at a potential first-round matchup as the No. 4 and No. 5 seeds. A disappointing Milwaukee (40-34) team has the sixth-best record and a four-game cushion on the play-in teams.

Atlanta (36-38), Orlando (36-38), Chicago (33-41), and Miami (33-41) make up 7th-through-10th in the East. The only other team not officially eliminated for the postseason are the 28-47 Toronto Raptors — who are 5.5 GB of the 10th seed. The Raptors are riding a four-game winning streak, but would need a miracle to catch Miami.

Most of these teams are already familiar with the play-in format. The Hawks have been in the play-in three years in a row, while the Bulls and Heat were in each of the last two.

As it currently stands, the Hawks will play the Magic to determine the 7th seed. The loser of that game will take on the winner of a Bulls-Heat matchup for a chance at the 8th and final spot in the playoff bracket.

Home court for the initial game is still up for grabs. The team with the better regular season record is awarded home court in each play-in matchup. Atlanta and Orlando are separated by half a game, and play each other twice in the final week including Game 82. Chicago and Miami have identical records at 33-41. If they finish the season with the same record, the Bulls will be given home court due to the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Out West, it’s a bit more complicated. The Thunder have a chance to win 70 games this year and are 13.5 games ahead of the rest of the pack. Wins in 12 of their last 13 games has given the Houston Rockets (49-26) a two-game cushion for the No. 2 seed.

The next six teams in the Western Conference are separated by just four games. In the top-6 currently are the Nuggets (47-28), Lakers (45-29), Grizzlies (44-30) and Warriors (43-31), but none of those teams are completely out of the woods just yet.

No. 7-10  in the West is an eclectic group featuring the Timberwolves (43-32), Clippers (42-32), Mavericks (37-38), and Kings (36-38). Minnesota and Los Angeles are closing in on a guaranteed spot in the playoffs, while Dallas and Sacramento will try to fend off the Phoenix Suns (35-40) who are well within striking distance. Look for the Clippers to potentially make a big push. Four of their next five games are at home, and none are against teams with a winning record.

For teams that fall into the play-in tournament, getting the No. 7 spot and avoiding the No. 10 spot is paramount. Since the play-in format was implemented, teams that finish with the 7th best regular season record have advanced through the play-in every time (6-2 in the 7th place game, 2-0 in the 8th place game). Conversely, teams that have finished 10th have never played their way into the playoffs (0-2 in the 8th place game).

The play-in tournament certainly adds more excitement to the final stretch of the NBA season. The Western Conference, in particular, will be interesting to monitor over the next couple of weeks.