There are certain players where you look at them and think “Boy, they’d look good wearing [Team X] jersey.”
For many operating under this premise, Nolan Arenado has often been tied to the Los Angeles Dodgers. He grew up in Southern California — and was unsurprisingly a Dodgers fan.
LA fans saw him play at an elite level for years as a member of the NL West rival Colorado Rockies. He developed into the game’s best third baseman. Arendo hit for power, average, and was unquestionably the best fielding third baseman for a decade.
All of this would indicate welcoming him with open arms should he become available. Now at age 33, the St. Louis Cardinals are in the process of undergoing a massive rebuild. Arenado doesn’t figure to be involved in the plans.
Naturally, trade rumors have linked the Dodgers to Arenado this offseason. These were further exacerbated by Arenado doling out an Instagram post with the Kendrick Lamar song “dodger blue” playing in the background.
Having said all of this…it is the contention of the writer of this article believing that the Dodgers should indeed pass on pursuing Arenado.
For one thing, he’s still owed $52 million dollars over the next three seasons. The bloated Dodgers payroll figues to get even bigger with potential signings of Blake Treinen, Teoscar Hernandez, Enrique Hernandez, and others out on the market.
Arenado’s calling card — his defensive prowess — has seemingly wained in recent years. After 10 straight Gold Glove awards, he’s not been awarded one over the last two years. Arenado’s combined to also commit 18 errors over the last two seasons.
Throughout his entire career, Arenado has only eight postseason appearances under his belt. For a team perennially in the postseason, you’d prefer to ‘ride or die’ with a guy who’s been there before and knows what it takes to win in October. Albeit a small sample size, Arenado has a career .152 batting average in postseason play.
Over the last two years, his numbers at the plate have seemed to regress. The last two seasons have elicited the lowest hard-hit percentages of his career. His walk rate has plummeted over this time, as has his average exit velocity and home run percentage.
In 2024, his RBI total (71) is the lowest it’s been in a full season since 2014 when he was a second-year player. His OPS this past year (.719) is the lowest he’s had in a full year since his rookie campaign in 2013.
Suffice it to say, but you’re seeing a depreciating player who’s presumably only going to get worse. Is he a better fielder than Max Muncy? Objectively speaking, yes. However, does the rest of the possible makeup result in a clear upgrade?
Muncy is fully entrenched into the culture of this team. His walk rate makes him an on-base savant of sorts. He won’t hit for the average Arenado brings. Having said that, his experience in big-time situations far surpasses that of the future Hall of Famer. He also costs far less comparatively speaking, and Muncy won’t be plugging up the third base spot for multiple years moving forward.
If there’s something the Dodgers fundamentally operate with perhaps more than anything, it’s positional flexibility. The front office has earned the right to be a big arrogant, and there’s the chance the team could bring in Arenado with the idea of improving certain aspects of his game.
However, as he approaches age 34, it could be a case of him aging in the wrong direction as opposed to his drop in production being solely attributed to a less-than-ideal situation in St. Louis.
