Five Teams Set to Overachieve

1. Kansas City Royals

At first glance, it may seem strange to see the Royals in this group. Kansas City won 86 games in 2024 and eliminated the 91-win Baltimore Orioles in the AL wildcard round before falling to the eventual AL Pennant winning New York Yankees in the Division Series. Despite their success, the Royals are entering the season with the fourth-best odds to win the American League Central. A majority of sports books have the Royals O/U at 82.5 wins. With Bobby Witt Jr. a true MVP candidate, KC should build upon its progress last season. The Chicago White Sox are the only team in the Central with virtually no chance of winning — but there is no powerhouse, either. The Royals will push for 90 wins and another trip to the postseason. 

2. Washington Nationals

Washington is not going to make the playoffs. However, that doesn’t mean the team won’t overachieve in 2025. The Nationals haven’t reached the playoffs since they won the World Series in 2019, but hope is on the horizon. The team has won 71 games back-to-back seasons and has a promising young nucleus. Dylan Crews and James Wood are two of the best prospects in the sport and should have plenty of opportunities this season. Crews, Wood, and shortstop CJ Abrams give the Nats three potential stars to build around. Nathaniel Lowe, acquired in a trade, and veteran Josh Bell should provide the lineup with some much-needed thump. Finishing any higher than fourth in the NL East would be shocking, but the Nats will surprise some folks throughout the season. 

3. Cincinnati Reds

Last year, the Reds were a trendy pick to win the National League Central. Instead of rising to the occasion, the Reds went 77-85 and were one of the most disappointing teams in the league. Terry Francona was hired in the offseason to lead the club and will certainly provide a boost in the dugout. Additions were made to both the lineup and rotation. Brady Singer was acquired from Kansas City and will give Cincy a strong arm in its rotation. With 2B Jonathan India sent to KC in the trade, a spot was opened up for Matt McClain to become the everyday 2B. The Reds also swung a trade for former Dodger Gavin Lux. Lux will likely play multiple positions this year, but he is primed to start the year at third. Cincinnati is going to outpace both Milwaukee and Chicago, respectively, to win the Central. 

4. Athletics

The only team in professional sports without a city designation in its name — the Athletics. No longer in Oakland, the A’s will play their home games at a Minor League facility in Sacramento. After a 50-win season in 2023, the A’s showed signs of improvement last year en route to 69 victories. Surprisingly, the franchise spent money in the offseason and brought in SP Luis Severino, SP Jeffrey Springs and RP José Leclerc. The A’s still need help in their lineup — they finished 26th in runs last season — but there are some good players on the roster. Brent Rooker hit 39 homers last season and catcher Shea Langeliers has 51 HR over the past two seasons. The A’s will finish with 75 wins and end the season ahead of the Los Angeles Angels for the second year in a row.

5. Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks have a chance to be a top-5 team in baseball. Opinions are split on whether Arizona or the San Diego Padres will be the second-best team in the NL West, but I am confident the D-Backs are the answer. The club is two years removed from winning the National League and is coming off an 89-73 season. Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll are absolute stars in the lineup and Arizona’s starting rotation has the potential to be elite. The addition of Corbin Burnes gives the D-Backs two Cy Young candidates atop the rotation — the other pitcher being Zac Gallen. Christian Walker is no longer manning first base, but the team found a good replacement by trading for Josh Naylor. Last year with Cleveland, Naylor hit a career-high 31 HR and drove in 108 runs. With a deep lineup and rotation, Arizona will win 90+ games and enter the postseason as a serious threat to win the league. 

Five Teams Set to Disappoint

1. Toronto Blue Jays

This is a franchise that has a dark cloud hovering above it. From 2020-2023, the Blue Jays reached the postseason three times and won 89+ games in all three full seasons — they were swept in all three series. The team fell apart last season en route to 74 wins and a last-place finish in the AL East. Now, the Jays enter the season with the looming uncertainty of star Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s future with the team. By failing to agree to an extension, Toronto faces a very real possibility of losing Vlad Jr. in the offseason — if not sooner. Additionally, Bo Bichette is a prime trade candidate at this year’s deadline. While the team did well late in the winter by adding slugger Anthony Santander and pitcher Max Scherzer, it will not be enough to truly change the fortunes of this ballclub. Vlad Jr. and Bichette will dominate headlines throughout the season as the Jays flail to another last-place finish. 

2. Seattle Mariners

Everyone that understands baseball knows Seattle needs some semblance of hitting to be a threat in the American League. However, the front office continues to fail its team. The Mariners have arguably the game’s best starting rotation and they play in a winnable division. The Astros should remain competitive but are going to look very different, and the Rangers, while talented, are a crapshoot as it pertains to their health. The division is there for the taking. Unfortunately for fans of the M’s, the biggest addition to the lineup this offseason was 37-year-0ld Donovan Solano. Seattle finished 21st in runs last year and there is no reason to believe it will be much better this season. The M’s will finish third in the West.

3. New York Mets

The highest-spending team in baseball is going to disappoint in 2025. Of course, the Mets were considered one of the big winners of the offseason when they signed Juan Soto to a historic deal. The team also re-signed slugger Pete Alonso to a club-friendly deal and brought in former Yankee reliever Clay Holmes. So, why are they going to disappoint? New York reached the NLCS last season. In 2025, it will finish third in the NL East. While the Mets will find their way into the postseason by securing the final Wild Card position, they will be unable to top either Philadelphia or Atlanta in the East. Then, the Mets will lose in the Wild Card round.

4. San Diego Padres

An argument can be made that the Padres had the most disappointing offseason of any team. Last season, many people believed San Diego was the best team in baseball. With a 2-1 series lead over the rival Dodgers, the Padres were shutout in Games 4 and 5 thus ending their season. The club then saw its star reliever, Tanner Scott, and its top offseason target, Roki Sasaki, sign with the Dodgers. Jurickson Profar is also gone after signing with the Braves. The Padres pivoted by signing SP Nick Pivetta and veteran Jason Heyward. The club will be good once again in 2025, but they will finish third in the NL West and miss out on the playoffs as the Mets take the last spot.

5. Cleveland Guardians

Like the Mets and Padres, the Guardians should be a good club in 2025. Cleveland won the American League Central last year for the second time in three seasons. Then, the team knocked off Detroit in the ALDS before falling to the Yankees in the ALCS. The Central figures to be a competitive division once again. On the heels of three teams (Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City) reaching the postseason in ’24, those three teams (also including Minnesota) are going to contend for the No. 1 spot in ’25. The Guardians traded Josh Naylor to Arizona (a big loss) and sent Andrés Giménez to Toronto. Carlos Santana was brought in to replace Naylor. At this point in his career, Santana is a clear downgrade. Cleveland’s rotation and bullpen will be strong as always, but its lineup will prevent a return trip to the postseason.