Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs
HOU: QB C.J. Stroud
It’s the most obvious pick here, but the Texans need C.J. Stroud at his best if they want to topple the back-to-back defending champions. Stroud has to take care of the ball, make plays with his legs, and connect on a few passes downfield to keep Kansas City’s defense honest. The Chiefs have massive belief in themselves after winning three Super Bowls. However, their offense hasn’t clicked all year. If Stroud and the Texans can put up a couple of quick scores, an upset may be in the cards.
KC: EDGE George Karlaftis
Getting pressure on the quarterback has been key for this Chiefs defense all year long. 2022 first-round pick George Karlaftis led the team in sacks each of the last two seasons and collected 3.0 sacks during the playoff run a year ago. He was held without a sack when these two teams faced off on Dec. 21. He’ll have to get on the scoreboard to keep Houston’s offense off schedule.
Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions
WAS: QB Jayden Daniels
It seems like another cop-out, but the chance for this game to be an upset drastically increases if the probable Offensive Rookie of the Year has a great performance. Daniels made the plays down the stretch for Washington in their win over Tampa Bay. A play is never over with Daniels’ ability to scramble and pick up yards. In last week’s victory, the Commanders never punted and committed zero turnovers (turned it over on downs twice). They’ll have to follow a similar script if they want to advance to the NFC Championship.
DET: RB Jahmyr Gibbs
Detroit’s elite rushing attack meets one of the worst rushing defenses in the league. Washington finished 30th in rushing yards allowed during the regular season. David Montgomery is slated to return for the Lions in this game, but we still expect Jahmyr Gibbs to handle most of the workload. The second-year back has been sensational this year and could break this game wide-open with a couple of big runs.
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles
LAR: DT Braden Fiske
The Rams’ defensive front was dominated by the Eagles in their Week 12 matchup. The Eagles rushed for 314 yards, and QB Jalen Hurts was hit just twice all game. A strong 2024 draft class has revitalized LA’s defense, with edge rusher Jared Verse the likely winner of the Defensive Rookie of the Year.
However, it was another rookie, DT Braden Fiske, who recorded the only sack on Hurts when these two teams faced off over two months ago. Fiske and the rest of the defensive line will need to be up to task against a dominant Eagles offensive line.
PHI: WR DeVonta Smith
Saquon Barkley is an obvious pick here. If he goes off for 300-plus scrimmage yards again, it’s safe to say the Rams’ season will be over. LA’s defense has improved over the last month and should do a better job against the All-Pro running back. One Eagle the Rams will be seeing for the first time this season is WR DeVonta Smith who was out for the first matchup. Smith led the Eagles in receiving yards in their win over the Packers and has looked excellent since returning. He should find success against an unproven Rams secondary.
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills
BAL: RB Derrick Henry
This is why the Ravens signed Derrick Henry in the offseason, for games like this. Baltimore went away from the run game in their AFC Championship loss to the Chiefs last season. Don’t expect that to happen with Henry now in tow. As evidenced by their first playoff game this year, the Ravens plan on using Henry early and often. He destroyed a strong Steeler defense to the tune of 186 yards and 2 TDs. When he played the Bills earlier this year, Henry rushed for 199 yards on 24 carries.
BUF: LB Matt Milano
Both x-factors in this matchup are players that the two teams didn’t have during their playoff run last year. Bills LB Matt Milano was injured in Week 5 of the 2023 season and missed the remainder of the year. He didn’t return until Week 13 of this year, and suited up for four regular season games plus Buffalo’s Wild Card win over the Broncos.
Milano was also out when these two teams met earlier this season. He’s still finding his footing, but Milano is the leader of the Buffalo defense and could be a key in slowing down Baltimore’s league-best rushing attack.
