The Oklahoma City Thunder are the hottest team in basketball, recently earning their 12th win in a row (losing to the Milwaukee Bucks in the NBA Cup Championship does not count on either team’s record) after defeating the Minnesota Timberwolves on New Year’s Eve.
With a 27-5 record, the Thunder have already opened up a five-game lead on the rest of the conference. They’re running away with the No. 1 seed, all without Chet Holmgren for the last 22 games.
When Holmgren returns, should the Thunder be considered title favorites?
OKC certainly has the metrics that align with a top contender. They bolster the best defense in the league — a hallmark for elite teams. They’re allowing 103.3 PPG — that’s the lowest number for any team since 2018.
It’s a defense predicated on turning teams over and getting out on the break. The Thunder lead the league with 11.9 SPG and rank fourth with 6.0 BPG. Teams average 18.4 TOPG against Oklahoma City.
On the other side, the Thunder rarely make mistakes. They turn the ball over less than any team in the league — 11.0 TOPG. Opponents average just 12.1 points off Thunder turnovers a game — 30th in the league. The Thunder average 23.3 points off of their opponent’s turnovers a game — 1st in the league. There’s an 11-point swing every night in the Thunder’s favor just off of taking care of the ball and turning their opponents over.
Holmgren was a big part of their defensive identity with his ability to protect the basket and challenge shooters. With him on the mend, Isaiah Hartenstein has stepped in with the defense not missing a beat.
Since making his debut with the team on Nov. 20, the Thunder are 16-1 when Hartenstein plays. He’s posted 13 double-doubles in those contests and has proven to be one of the best signings of the offseason.
We’ve seen great defenses in the past falter due to offensive deficiencies. However, OKC has an MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and one of the best No. 2 options in Jalen Williams. Gilgeous-Alexander poured in 40 points in their last win, doubling the output of Minnesota’s superstar Anthony Edwards. OKC’s lead man is averaging 31.3 PPG — second in the NBA — while adding 6.0 APG, 5.5 RPG, 2.0 SPG, and 1.2 BPG.
The one knock on Gilgeous-Alexander has been his willingness to stretch the floor and shoot from the perimeter. He’s attempting 6.2 threes per game this year — up from 3.6 last year — and knocking them down at a respectable 35.0-percent rate. The modifications to his shot profile have actually slightly improved his efficiency. He currently sports a 63.9-percent true-shooting rate — a career-high.
They haven’t gotten much out of Alex Caruso, yet. The piece acquired for Josh Giddey in the offseason has played in just 20 games this year while averaging 19.9 MPG. He figures to be a key contributor in Oklahoma City’s playoff rotation.
With Caruso, Holmgren, Hartenstein, Luguentz Dort, and Cason Wallace, the Thunder have an unlimited amount of defensive combinations they can deploy against specific matchups. Not to mention, Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams are All-Defensive team candidates in their own right.
The Thunder take on the defending champion Boston Celtics this Sunday in a potential NBA Finals preview. Oklahoma City is also set to face the only team with a better record than them currently — the 29-4 Cleveland Cavaliers — twice over the next two weeks. Wins in those contests with Holmgren’s impending return should have fans viewing the Thunder as the title favorite.
