NFC South Title on the Line: Buccaneers or Falcons to Prevail?

The NFC South title remains up for grabs as we enter Week 18 of the NFL Season. Both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) and the Atlanta Falcons (8-6) have exchanged the lead in recent weeks, but it’s the Bucs who are in the driver’s seat with one game remaining. The Falcons’ crushing overtime defeat to the Washington Commanders on Sunday has put them in a dire position.

Atlanta controlled their fate with two games left. Two wins guaranteed them the division crown and a home playoff game. They let that opportunity slip through their fingers in a disastrous loss to the Commanders. The Falcons held a 10-point lead going into halftime on Sunday. They allowed 17 straight points to begin the second half, but a fourth-quarter touchdown pass from rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. to TE Kyle Pitts tied the game late.

After a quick defensive stop, the Falcons had a chance to win the game in regulation. A stunning mismanagement of timeouts from Atlanta HC Raheem Morris forced the team to attempt a long field goal on 1st and 10 with :02 seconds remaining. With starting kicker Younghoe Koo sidelined due to injury, replacement Riley Patterson tried a 56-yard kick as time expired.

The attempt came up short, and the game was sent to overtime. In OT, Washington’s rookie QB, Jayden Daniels, marched the offense 76 yards down the field for the game-ending touchdown.

Atlanta has nobody to blame but themselves for their current predicament. Back in Week 9, the Falcons were 6-3, had won five of six, and already swept the season series against the Buccaneers. They immediately followed that up with a four-game losing streak that eventually led to Kirk Cousins getting benched.

Now, the Falcons must defeat a scrappy Panthers team in Week 18 and hope for a Bucs loss to force a tie atop the standings. Atlanta’s 2-0 record over their rival this year grants them an automatic tiebreaker.

For Tampa Bay, it’s following almost the exact script as last year. In ’23, the Bucs started 3-1, fell apart for two months, caught fire in December, and needed a win in their final game to clinch the division. This year, the Bucs started 3-1, fell apart for two months, caught fire in December, and can clinch the division title with a win in Week 18.

The Bucs are even fortunate to be in this position. It seemed like they had blown their chance after a puzzling defeat to Cooper Rush and the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16. They responded well with a blowout win over the Panthers on Sunday, and now hold all the cards.

They take on another division rival on the last day of the regular season with the New Orleans Saints coming to town. Divisional games are rarely easy, but the Saints are depleted on both sides of the ball and rookie QB Spencer Rattler has an 0-6 record as a starter this season. Bucs QB Baker Mayfield will look to add to his impressive season, having already set a new career high in completions (386), passing yards (4,279), rushing yards (310), and touchdowns (42) with a game to go.

The Buccaneers are in with a win. The Falcons have to beat the Panthers and hope the Saints can upset the Bucs. Tampa Bay will enter Week 18 as heavy favorites over New Orleans, but we’ve seen crazier things happen.